Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Buying momentum still not back

Today was a pivotal day as we observe the impact of the outcome of the Fed meeting. Apparently, the rate cut was not enough and the markets opened with a gap down.

The Dow Jones closed with a huge black candlestick and landed on the 100d MA thus the 100d MA is the support for now.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:


The Straits Times Index opened with a gap down but managed to close higher den it's opening with a small white candlestick. However, it is noted that the volume is still very light.

Straits Times Index:


It seems that what i hoped for did not come true in the end. The Fed meeting did not bring back the buying momentum because the rate cuts were not enough. This can be seen in the extremely low volume for the STI today.

Overall, i am still bullish cos technically speaking, the uptrend for both the DJIA and the STI is still intact. In fact, i think today is a good day to load up simply because due to the rate cuts, the market is grossly oversold today. Furthermore, though most counters opened with a gap down today for their openings, the selling did not persist and most counters regained some ground. This shows that there are still buyers out there. I guess i just gotta have some more patience to hold on.

IndoAgri seems to be looking bearish. Currently it is now supported on the trendline but both the MACD and the RSI are showing bearish divergences as they trend lower while the price action still trends higher. Furthermore, it seems that the volume overall is drying up as seen in the yellow region as we compared to it's previous rallies where there were huge spikes in the volume. If Indoagri breaks this trendline, chances are that it will plunge further.

IndoAgri:


On a lighter note, i realised i made some mistakes for my weekly charts. For the period parameter of the RSI, i should have use 8 or 9 weeks instead of 14 weeks. It is no wonder that my weekly RSI lines were so smooth :) After changing it to 8 weeks, the RSI seems much more useful as i spotted bearish divergences just before the previous few corrections. Those bearish divergences were not present when i set the period to 14 weeks. I set it to 14 because on the daily chart, i use a period of 14 days thus it din occur to me that i should change it to 8 or 9 until i reread my technical analysis books. Think i should tweak my MACD parameters on the weekly chart. That solves the great mystery on how come i think that the RSI is so useless on the weekly charts :D

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