Saturday, October 27, 2007

Market weekend review + stock picks

For the last closing, the Dow Jones rally up quite a significant amount. This would imply that on Monday, the STI is likely to do well too. Nothing much on the DJIA chart and this is good. Fundamentally wise, there will be a outcome for the interest rate for the Fed meeting so it may affect the market slightly. I posted the DJIA chart for reference.

Dow Jones Industrial Average:


For the closing on this friday, the Straits Times Index managed to gap up and close the downside gap formed on the 22nd of this month. From technical analysis point of view, the closing of this downside gap is bullish. So we can see more signs from the chart that this correction is over.

Straits Times Index:


Last friday was a good time to pick up counters. I have been monitoring some counters which i think that they have some potential for profits and have put up their charts for reference.

China Hong broke it's historical high last friday. In my opinion, counters which have broke their historical high are likely to move upwards more simply because they have no prior resistance level. Another thing was that China Hong broke a 7th months old resistive trendline that has been tested 3 times so far. Notice everytime the counter touches this trendline in the past, it will rebound off this trendline and head downwards. This breakout was confirmed with heavy volume and another thing was that there was a bullish MACD line crossover.

China Hong:


Pan Hong broke it's historical high on thursday and it fell back on the trendline with low volume. Currently, it is supported on the trendline so this may be a good chance to enter.

Pan Hong:


On a personal note, i missed out on buying on China Hong due to fear on friday. A breakout of the historical high with heavy volume was confirmed on thursday and i should have bought it on friday. As i was going to buy the counter on friday, i saw it dipping below it's historical high value and i got fearful because of that. In the end, it rebounded and went to close way above it's historical high value. The good thing was that i told my fren to buy this counter. He managed to overcome his fear and buy on the intraday dip and is now sitting on a 7% paper profit. He was also the one whom i ask him to buy potential counters a few weeks ago which i was fearful to buy and he netted close to a 20 to 30% profit on these counters.

I think my fear is killing my ability to trade. Maybe that's why they say trading carrys a huge psychological factor too. This must be the 3rd time i failed to place a long due to fear. I must change my mindset regarding this.

Winning and losing is part and parcel of trading. I cannot expect to win all the time. If i wan to win all the time, i might as well put all my capital in the bank and be satisfied with the pathetic interest rate. Losing is alright as long as the amount of losses is strictly controlled. In any case, i am just a student. The amount of capital that i have now can be easily earned back within a few months when i start to work. I am trading now so that i can have more experience and training and not because i want to make huge profits. Furthermore, i should have more faith and confidence in my analysis and just place a long based on my analysis. Besides, my fren has been making profits based on my analysis too.

In any case, when the market opens on monday, i am just going to place longs on the potential counters and not worry too much about getting a good intra-day price. I should just buy 1st and not think so much instead of think too much and get fearful and thus missing out on a trade. All thinking should be done before the opening of the market. Once the trade is confirmed, i am just going to set a price alert and not look at it until the market closes.

0 comments: